Are we Ready for Future
Cyber Wars ???

Do cyber wars pose threats
to national or global security? What is the impact of the privatization of
intelligence in cyber sector? How can cyber wars ruin people’s daily lives? Is
it really possible to attribute cybercrimes to their rightful perpetrators?
Will information warfare be bloodless or do virtual acts have the potential to
shed real blood? Do state or non-state actors have the upper hand? When and how
should states respond to cyberattacks? Are active or passive defense position
the best option? Does any international legal framework yet exist to define
when cyber-counter attacks are permitted or justified? There is a long list of
questions to answer in order to understand the future cyber environment which
contains many unknowns and complex security challenges. Despite recognizing the
cyber environment as a “grey area”, many countries and institutions have
already started to search for ways to strengthen their cyber capabilities in
order to deter adversaries in cyberspace or through cyberspace.


From this perspective, the current and future cyber ecosystem needs to be discussed
under two main headings: “technical/technological” and “legal and
institutional” dimension. Yet each of these headings reveal the ‘awareness’ and
‘readiness’ levels of the countries.


Technical and
Technological Dimension


The cyber environment is a global space where any type of information system
(e.g., computers and telephones) and their communication channelsmeet together
in order to process, send, and store data. Thus, the cyber environment contains
“human”, “technology”, “virtual”, and “physical” components. Today, the sphere
where “society” and “technology” intersect has emerged as a “cyber life zone,”
and implies not only the dimension and impact of the threat, but also points
out the difficulty of taking real-time preventive and actionable precautions in
terms of chain reactions and increasing speed.


Currently there are more than 4.208 billion internet users in the world.2 Meanwhile
the Internet of Things (IoT) is growing faster than anyone expected; from 2
billion objects in 2006 to a projected 200 billion by 2020 (which amounts to
around 26 smart objects for every human being on Earth). The world is getting
much smarter; business/manufacturing, healthcare, retail, security and
transportation are all using billions of smart devices. By 2025, the total
global worth of IoT technology is estimated to be as much as USD 6.2 trillion,
most of which is from devices used in healthcare and manufacturing.3


At the same time, people are becoming increasingly dependent on smart
technology and interconnected networks beyond mobile phones: we live and work
in smart homes and offices. Despite the rapid proliferation of smart devices,
people remain largely unaware of the risks that might occur in their
connectable home devices. TV’s, cameras, thermostats, heaters and air
conditioners, bike locks and trackers, door locks, energy and lighting systems,
or alarms may all serve as vulnerable hubs for hackers to gain unauthorized
access to your IoT ecosystem at home.


The cyber landscape contains both advantages and disadvantages. In this
respect, autonomous and robotic technologies which employ artificial
intelligence reflect the discourse on cybersecurity. For example, autonomous
vehicles which are still being developed by various companies such as Tesla, Uber,
Waymo, LeTV, Great Wall Motors, Baidu, and Uisee Technology will be capable of
performing driving tasks without humans or with limited human assistance.4
Tesla added radar to all its vehicles in October 2014 as part ofits autopilot
hardware suite and is still working on enhancing the capabilities (e.g.,
location accuracy) of its fully self-driving suite.5 As stated in
the latest research by Counterpoint’s IoT tracking service, the global market
for connected cars is expected to grow by 270 percent by 2022 with more than
125 million connected passenger cars with embedded connectivity to be shipped
during 2018-2022.6

Merve SEREN, From the book “Security of the Future”

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