ARAŞTIRMA DOSYALARI


Background


This report
contains an assessment of the state-of-the-art of modeling and analysis for
civil preparedness and management of the post-attack U.S. *economy. This
evaluation was derived from a large volume of related literature. A selected,
annotated bibliography of over 100 entries follows a state-of-the-art
assessment.


Literature
areas reviewed included historical disasters, industry studies, post-attack
viability, survival and economic recovery, and civil defense, both U.S. and
Soviet. Some literature on modeling methods was researched. Modeling methods
covered were input/output, econometrics, optimization and system dynamics.


Analysis of
the literature and current state-of-the-art revealed several key management
aspects of the post-attack economy. These aspects were resource allocation and
distribution, energy, information, communication, command and control (C3),
finance, social and behavioral response, and government authority. Most of
these managerial aspects were found to have been neither thoroughly analyzed
nor specifically modeled.


Assessing
modeling needs, available modeling methods, and deficiencies in the
state-of-the-art led to a recommendation for further development of system
dynamics models for management of U.S. post-attack economic recovery. System
dynamics is suggested because of its flexibility, potential scope, an
capabilities for handling non-linearities, dynamic effects, on soft items such
as social and behavioral responses.


Critical
issues recommended for further investigation include: analysis of the use of
information, communications, command and control (C3) systems in the
post-attack survival and economic recovery management; incorporation of the
impacts of mobilization and national security requirements on post-attack U.S.
economic recovery; consideration of multiple regions with varying damage
levels: analysis of social and behavioral factors; and evaluation of
alternative civil preparedness policies. Taken together, these recommendations
point toward analysis and development of a comprehensive but not cumbersome
model for the assessment of alternative policies for civil preparedness and
post-attack U.S. economic recovery.


Declassified Documents


 Civil
Preparedness and Post-Attack U.S. Economic Recovery: A State-of-the-Art
Assessment and Selected Annotated Bibliography, Volume 1
, October
1979 [341 Pages, 14.7MB] – This report contains an assessment of the
state-of-the-art of modeling and analysis for civil preparedness and management
of the post-attack U.S. economy. This evaluation was derived from a large
volume of related literature. A selected annotated bibliography of over 100
entries follows a state-of-the-art assessment.


 Managing
the U.S. Economy in a Post-Attack Environment: A System Dynamics Model of
Viability, Volume 2
, November 1979 [77 Pages, 3.2MB] – The
primary objective of this study is to determine if post-attack viability (or
collapse) is automatic for a given system, or if management actions can
influence the outcome. In investigating this problem, the approach focuses on
exploring the structure of a post-attack system for instabilities, identifying
the processes that could lead to collapse, and then evaluating if and how
alternative post-attack management policies can mitigate the effects of those
instabilities.



Options
for Accelerating Economic Recovery after Nuclear Attack. Volume 3
, July
1979 [122 Pages, 5.92MB] – The United States may fail to exploit to the fullest
its potential for economic recovery following a nuclear attack because failures
in post-attack management in both the political and the economic sectors. This
report looks at possible adjustments in our continually evolving peacetime
management systems, adjustments which might contribute substantially to
post-attack recovery at little peacetime cost. The post-attack considerations
addressed include making government more effective in bringing about economic
recovery and, very importantly, making sure that government continues as
government, i.e., that we do not sink into anarchy. Five broad categories of
adjustments are discussed.

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