following document was received under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). It was created by the Director of
the DIA, LTG Patrick M. Hughes. In the introduction, he writes:
is the fourth edition of the Primer on the Future Threat and my final as the
Director of DIA.
intent remains to provide a thought provoking document that highlights for
decision makers and long range planners those threats and challenges that may
emerge in the period 1999-2020 and beyond.
the past five years, the Department of Defense has grown increasingly concerned
with the future global security environment, in part because of the ambiguity
and uncertainty that we expect will continue to characterize the global
the central threat focus of the Cold War, we must anticipate a much broader set
of challenging circumstances and conditions.
primer endeavors to help decision makers and planners by illuminating key
trends that will impact the world of the 21st century, identifying critical
uncertainties, and addressing potential implications for the nature of conflict
Primer on the Future Threat, The Decades Ahead: 1999-2020 [164 Pages,