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Con Coughlin : Turkey: Ergodan Has Badly Overplayed His
Hand in the Khashoggi Affair




§ Mr Erdogan, who has been the main driving
force behind efforts to cause the Saudis maximum discomfort, now has an
abundance of problems of his own, challenges which could spell the end of his
16-years in charge. After Mr Erdogan’s Islamist AKP party lost badly in last
April’s mayoral election for control of Istanbul, the Turkish leader now finds
himself trying desperately to salvage Turkey’s battered economy, where the
currency is in free fall, foreign debts remain vast, and inflation and
joblessness are alarmingly high.
 

§ Many Turks blame their country’s
plight on Mr Erdogan’s obsession with pursuing his radical Islamist agenda,
which includes supporting groups like the Muslim Brotherhood.




§ Many prefer him to concentrate
instead on addressing their domestic concerns, a view the Turkish president
would be well-advised to take on board if he intends to remain in power.
 

If Mr Erdogan’s aim throughout this process was
to cause the Saudi Crown Prince maximum embarrassment, the ploy has failed
miserably. (Photo by Stephanie Keith/Getty Images)




A year after the brutal murder of Saudi
dissident Jamal Khashoggi, attempts by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
to exploit the controversy to boost his own political standing have back-fired.
 

Ever since Mr Khashoggi was murdered moments
after entering the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul in October last year to
obtain documentation for his forthcoming marriage, Mr Erdogan has skilfully
exploited the incident to cause maximum embarrassment to Saudi Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman, whom he regards as one of his major regional rivals.




Ankara has been at loggerheads with Riyadh ever
since the Muslim Brotherhood, a key ally of Mr Erdogan, came to power in Egypt
in 2012, a move bitterly resisted by the Saudis, who regard the Brotherhood as
a terrorist organisation.
 

Indeed, one of the reasons the Saudis targeted
Mr Khashoggi in the first place was because of his close links with the
Brotherhood, as well as his close relationship with Qatar, the Gulf state that
is bitterly opposed to the Saudi royal family and is one of the Brotherhood’s
most important backers.




Khashoggi’s gruesome fate was very much the
consequence of this complex web of bitter regional rivalries between prominent
Muslim leaders, so that when a team of Saudi assassins carried out their plot
to silence Khashoggi’s high profile criticism of the Saudi regime — his columns
regularly appeared in the Washington Post, among other prominent publications —
Mr Erdogan responded by doing everything in his power to orchestrate an
international campaign denouncing the Saudi crown prince.
 

Thus, in the immediate aftermath of the Khashoggi
killing, the Turkish authorities oversaw a steady drip-feed of revelations
about the murder that were acquired as a result of numerous bugging devices
that had been placed in the Saudi consulate by Turkish intelligence. Turkish
efforts to maintain their anti-Saudi public relations offensive have continued
right up until the first anniversary of his death, which fell earlier this
week, with new, even more graphic, details of how Mr Khashoggi met his end
being made available to Western media organisations such as the BBC, which this
week broadcast a programme claiming to have the “secret” tapes of Khashoggi’s
last moments.




If Mr Erdogan’s aim throughout this process was
to cause the Saudi Crown Prince maximum embarrassment, then, to judge by the
way Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler is conducting himself, the ploy has failed
miserably.
 

There was, of course, much speculation in the
immediate aftermath of the affair that MbS, as the Saudi Crown Prince is
universally known, might be removed from his position over claims that he was
personally responsible for ordering the murder, which was very much the line
being pushed by Mr Erdogan in the Western media.




A number of administrative changes were indeed
made to the running of the Saudi royal court. But as no conclusive evidence has
been produced to link MbS directly to the killing, his position as the key
figure in the Saudi regime appears undiminished. Moreover, his candid
acceptance, in an interview with the PBS network aired this week, that ultimate
responsibility for the Khashoggi killing rests with him because the murder
happened on “my watch” appears to have drawn a line under the affair so far as
most Western governments are concerned, with the US, as well as most European
countries, slowly adopting a “business as usual” approach to their dealings
with the Saudis.
 

By contrast, Mr Erdogan, who has been the main
driving force behind efforts to cause the Saudis maximum discomfort, now has an
abundance of problems of his own, challenges which could spell the end of his
16-years in charge. After Mr Erdogan’s Islamist AKP party lost badly in last
April’s mayoral election for control of Istanbul, the Turkish leader now finds
himself trying desperately to salvage Turkey’s battered economy, where the
currency is in free fall, foreign debts remain vast, and inflation and
joblessness are alarmingly high.




Many Turks blame their country’s plight on Mr
Erdogan’s obsession with pursuing his radical Islamist agenda, which includes
supporting groups like the Muslim Brotherhood.
 

Many prefer him to concentrate instead on
addressing their domestic concerns, a view the Turkish president would be
well-advised to take on board if he intends to remain in power.




Con Coughlin is the Telegraph‘s Defence and
Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone
Institute.

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